Covid-19 K-12 School Testing Impact Estimator

Schools across the country are making difficult decisions about whether and how to implement Covid-19 testing. This impact estimator, designed by Mathematica and The Rockefeller Foundation, is designed to help schools and public health agencies make these decisions. The results shown were produced by an agent-based model (ABM) created to assess the potential value of routine testing in K-12 schools, above and beyond other mitigation strategies.

Answer a few questions and then select different routine testing strategies to compare how well they each perform relative to one another and a "baseline" in which a school offers only diagnostic testing and masking.*

Update 11/8/2021: Underlying ABM updated to assume all SARS-CoV-2 virus in the model is of the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant given its widespread prevalence. Additional questions were added to present results based on varying vaccination rates among (1) students and (2) teachers and staff. An additional question was added to present results with varying student opt-in rates to routine testing. All teachers and staff are assumed to comply with routine testing.

Insights

  • Higher student opt-in rates lead to higher predicted impacts of routine testing at all community incidence rates.
  • Vaccination rates of the school population are a key consideration when considering a testing strategy. Routine testing has a higher impact on within-school transmission the lower the school population’s vaccination rate.

For further inquiries about the use of this impact estimator, please reach out to Divya Vohra (dvohra@mathematica-mpr.com) and John Hotchkiss (jhotchkiss@mathematica-mpr.com).

  • Routine testing is of individuals that have not already been identified as symptomatic or exposed to identify infected people sooner and reduce transmission. Diagnostic testing refers to testing for people who have symptoms and/or a history of close contact with an infected individual.

Get started by answering a few questions.

Some combinations of parameters will not show results because the model does not allow for accurate estimates within these combinations. Under those combinations of parameters, routine testing may not provide significant benefit above and beyond diagnostic testing and masking.

Note that as selections are made below, subsequent selection options will be filtered such that only one option may be available.

Select a school type

Select a quarantine policy

Which students and staff are quarantined when there’s a positive case?

Select a vaccination rate for teachers and staff

What percentage of teachers and staff are vaccinated?

Select a vaccination rate for students

What percentage of students are vaccinated?

Select a routine testing opt-in rate

What percentage of students opt-in to routine testing?

Select a community incidence rate

Provide the total number of people infected per 100,000 in the past 7 days. To find your community incidence rate, use the CDC county-level case tracker.

Select a priority outcome

Select the metric that is your highest priority for decision making. Results will be displayed for all metrics, but will be organized based on this selection.

DISCLAIMER AND LIMITATION OF LIABILITY

Neither Mathematica nor The Rockefeller Foundation nor Duke Margolis Health Policy Center or any contributors, collaborators, or contractors guarantee the accuracy, completeness or integrity of the information collected. Further, the information is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an endorsement, guidance, recommendations, legal advice, medical advice, or advice for any particular product, program or policy. Any use or interpretation of or reliance on the information for any purpose, is solely and exclusively the responsibility of the recipients of the information. THE INFORMATION IS PROVIDED “AS IS” AND NO WARRANTY OF ANY KIND IS GIVEN FOR THE INFORMATION UNDER ANY NATIONAL OR INTERNATIONAL LAW, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, ANY WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, OR WARRANTY AGAINST INFRINGEMENT OF INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY. The Rockefeller Foundation, Mathematica, and all contributors, collaborators, and contractors expressly disclaim and assume no responsibility for any losses, damages, claims, or other liabilities, including loss of good will, revenue, profits, or business interruption, or any consequential, special, indirect, incidental, punitive or exemplary loss, including costs of defense or attorneys’ fees, arising out of or relating to use of this information. It is expressly understood that The Rockefeller Foundation, Mathematica, and all contributors, collaborators, and contractors by providing this information, have no obligation to update the information or provide additional support or information to the recipient.